### Friday, June 23, 2006

## Projected Date For Iraq Pullout ...

Senator Kerry recently was quoted by the Boston Globe expressing optimism that his push to get a timetable for a withdrawal is gaining support based upon the fact the his latest effort drew twice as many votes as his previous attempt. Since it only garnered 13 votes, though, let's play a little math and see what's what.

The main difference between attempt 1 and attempt 2 was the change from 1 Jan 2007 to 1 Jul 2007. So, if we assume a geometric relationship between withdrawal and votes we need at least two more iterations before we get to > 50 votes, or 1 Jul 2008. However, assuming a linear gain of seven votes per six months the timetable stretches out further to 1 Jan 2011.

The main difference between attempt 1 and attempt 2 was the change from 1 Jan 2007 to 1 Jul 2007. So, if we assume a geometric relationship between withdrawal and votes we need at least two more iterations before we get to > 50 votes, or 1 Jul 2008. However, assuming a linear gain of seven votes per six months the timetable stretches out further to 1 Jan 2011.