Monday, November 01, 2004
Four Horsemen on the Election
The four states to watch will be PA, OH, MI and, of course, FL.
I started with the LA Times’ map and made the following assumptions about their "undecideds":
This brings the EV totals to 237 Bush, 205 Kerry. What this means is that of the big four left (PA, OH, MI and FL), Bush will win with any two, while Kerry will win only with FL and any other two. The oddball scenario is if Bush takes FL but Kerry has the other three, in which case IA becomes the tiebreaker. Barring any upsets in my initial assumptions above, HI, while dramatic as the last state to vote, will largely be irrelevant.
Look for early upsets to indicate unforeseen trends. If NH or NJ fall to Bush look for a 300+ win. While word of mouth in MA and CT has indicated stronger Bush support than expected, they will remain standing for the Democrats in the face of everything but a full force landslide.
I started with the LA Times’ map and made the following assumptions about their "undecideds":
| Bush | Kerry | ||
| EST | VA | NH, NJ | |
| CST | WI, MO | MN | |
| MST | CO, AZ, NV | NM | |
| PST | WA, OR | ||
| EV total | (58) | (52) |
This brings the EV totals to 237 Bush, 205 Kerry. What this means is that of the big four left (PA, OH, MI and FL), Bush will win with any two, while Kerry will win only with FL and any other two. The oddball scenario is if Bush takes FL but Kerry has the other three, in which case IA becomes the tiebreaker. Barring any upsets in my initial assumptions above, HI, while dramatic as the last state to vote, will largely be irrelevant.
Look for early upsets to indicate unforeseen trends. If NH or NJ fall to Bush look for a 300+ win. While word of mouth in MA and CT has indicated stronger Bush support than expected, they will remain standing for the Democrats in the face of everything but a full force landslide.
