Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Competing with Zogby 

Like many, I experienced a noticibly heavier turnout today when I went to vote. I'm in a rather red state and did not note an unusually large presence of presumed Kerry types (i.e. young, minority) so I have to agree that it looks like Bush's base is motivated.

Zogby's latest is calling it a 252/252 tie to be decided by VA and PA. Of course, since PA brings its winner 21 EV, if Zogby is right VA is irrelevent. He, however, makes a few calls at odds with mine, specifically he gives CO, WI and HI all to Kerry (23EV), while I counted them 19B/4U. I'll stick with CO in the Bush column, making the race 261/243 with VA(13), PA(21), WI(10) and HI(4) in the hunt. In this new scenario, though, Bush takes the brass ring with any one of the three big buys left (poor little HI still stays a wallflower). In the end I expect Bush to take at least VA and WI (284EV), with a good possibility of a hat trick plus one (309EV).

Bottom line: I'm still calling it for Bush and by an uncontestable margin.

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