Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Zogby's latest is calling it a 252/252 tie to be decided by VA and PA. Of course, since PA brings its winner 21 EV, if Zogby is right VA is irrelevent. He, however, makes a few calls at odds with mine, specifically he gives CO, WI and HI all to Kerry (23EV), while I counted them 19B/4U. I'll stick with CO in the Bush column, making the race 261/243 with VA(13), PA(21), WI(10) and HI(4) in the hunt. In this new scenario, though, Bush takes the brass ring with any one of the three big buys left (poor little HI still stays a wallflower). In the end I expect Bush to take at least VA and WI (284EV), with a good possibility of a hat trick plus one (309EV).
Bottom line: I'm still calling it for Bush and by an uncontestable margin.